Journal of Global Infectious DiseasesOfficial Publishing of INDUSEM and OPUS 12 Foundation, Inc. Users online:232  
Print this pageEmail this pageSmall font sizeDefault font sizeIncrease font size     
Home About us Editors Ahead of Print Current Issue Archives Search Instructions Subscribe Advertise Login 
 


 
   Table of Contents     
LETTER TO EDITOR  
Year : 2021  |  Volume : 13  |  Issue : 1  |  Page : 61-62
Impacts of lockdown interventions on the spread of COVID-19 in India


1 Department of Zoology and Environmental Science, Gurukula Kangri Vishwavidyalaya, Haridwar, Uttarakhand, India
2 Department of Botany and Microbiology, Gurukula Kangri Vishwavidyalaya, Haridwar, Uttarakhand, India

Click here for correspondence address and email

Date of Submission25-Sep-2020
Date of Acceptance15-Oct-2020
Date of Web Publication29-Jan-2021
 

How to cite this article:
Bhardwaj N, Chandra H. Impacts of lockdown interventions on the spread of COVID-19 in India. J Global Infect Dis 2021;13:61-2

How to cite this URL:
Bhardwaj N, Chandra H. Impacts of lockdown interventions on the spread of COVID-19 in India. J Global Infect Dis [serial online] 2021 [cited 2021 Apr 23];13:61-2. Available from: https://www.jgid.org/text.asp?2021/13/1/61/308032


Sir,

COVID-19 outbreak caused by SARS-CoV2 has now become a global pandemic and a significant health concern throughout the world.[1] The first case of COVID-19 was reported in India on January 30, 2020.[2] Due to burgeoning incidence rate, India is on the second position globally in terms of confirmed cases after the USA. As of September 25, 2020, more than 5.81 million cases along with 92,317 deaths have been reported. The case fatality rate is 1.58% with 70% comorbidities. More than 81% of patients have been recovered (https://www.mohfw.gov.in). The Government of India has implemented the lockdown intervention to reduce the transmission of COVID-19 for 68 days in four different phases [Figure 1]. The major interventions include the social distancing, school closure, travel restrictions, border closures, wearing the face masks, quarantine of symptomatic patients, and their contacts. The main purpose of these interventions was to break the chain of transmission and to increase the awareness and to enhance the health infrastructure. Earlier, the lockdown processes have reduced the transmission of disease in China, Italy, Spain, and Australia,[3],[4],[5] however, the impact of lockdown in Indian scenario has not been evaluated yet.
Figure 1: Timeline of COVID-19 spread and lockdown strategies in India. The distributions of COVID-19 cases and lockdown strategies done by the Government of India have been shown

Click here to view


We analyzed the COVID-19 data available on the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, India. The data were taken before and during the entire lockdown period.

The data suggest that 1 week before the lockdown, COVID-19 cases were increasing, with an average rate of 21.81% per day, which was decreased to 15.44% in the first phase [Figure 2]a. The doubling period was increased from 3.30 to 4.66 days. The average increment in mortality rate was reduced from 21.15% to 19.17% per day [Figure 2]b. The mean rate of recovery was 17.98% per day (ranging from 4.49% to 48.89% on different periods) [Figure 2]c.
Figure 2: Impacts of lockdown on COVID-19 spread. The distribution of COVID-19 at different time points has been shown. (a) The percentage increase in COVID-19 cases. The increment in mortality and recovered cases has been shown in (b and c), respectively

Click here to view


In the second phase, the average increment in infected cases was 7.17% everyday, with a doubling period of 10.0 days (cases increased from 11933 to 40263) [Figure 2]a. The average increment in mortality was 7.15% per day (ranging from 2.86% to 12.96%). Total 9543 infected cases were recovered, with an average increment of 12.44% per day [Figure 2]c.

In the subsequent phase, the average increment in infected cases was approximately 6% per day, with a doubling period of 12 days. Total 1483 patients died, with an average increment rate of 5.82% per day (ranging from 3.9% to 14.0%). Total 22,347 infected cases were recovered, with an average rate of 8.51% per day.

In the last phase, the average increment in infected cases was 5.09% per day, with a doubling period of 14.17 days. The increment in mortality cases was ranging from 3.63% to 5.63% (average increment: 4.28% per day). Total 50,160 infected patients were recovered, with an average rate of 6.95% per day [Figure 2].

Overall, the lockdown strategies seem successful in reducing the transmission of COVID-19 infection in India. The proportion of the young age population (65% below 35 years of age) along with the mitigation strategies had definitely made a negative impact on the transmission.

Financial support and sponsorship

The grant, No. 56/2/Hae/BMS to NB, received from Indian Council for Medical Research (ICMR), New Delhi, is highly acknowledged.

Conflicts of interest

There are no conflicts of interest.

 
   References Top

1.
Zhu N, Zhang D, Wang W, Li X, Yang B, Song J, et al. A novel coronavirus from patients with pneumonia in China, 2019. N Engl J Med 2020; 382:727-33.  Back to cited text no. 1
    
2.
Asad A, Srivastava S, Verma MK. Evolution of COVID-19 pandemic in India. Trans Indian Natl Acad Eng 2020;1-8. [Doi: 10.1007/s41403-020-00166-y].  Back to cited text no. 2
    
3.
Lau H, Khosrawipour V, Kocbach P, Mikolajczyk A, Schubert J, Bania J, et al. The positive impact of lockdown in Wuhan on containing the COVID-19 outbreak in China. J Travel Med 2020;27:taaa037,[https://doi.org/10.1093/jtm/taaa037].  Back to cited text no. 3
    
4.
Flaxman, S, Mishra, S, Gandy A, Juliette, H, Mellan TA, Coupland H, et al. Estimating the effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 in Europe. Nature 2020;584:257-61.  Back to cited text no. 4
    
5.
Pepe E, Bajardi P, Gauvin L, Privitera F, Lake B, Cattuto C, et al. COVID-19 outbreak response, a dataset to assess mobility changes in Italy following national lockdown. Sci Data 2020; 7:230.  Back to cited text no. 5
    

Top
Correspondence Address:
Dr. Nitin Bhardwaj
Department of Zoology and Environmental Science, Gurukula Kangri Vishwavidyalaya, Haridwar - 249 404, Uttarakhand
India
Login to access the Email id

Source of Support: None, Conflict of Interest: None


DOI: 10.4103/jgid.jgid_340_20

Rights and Permissions


    Figures

  [Figure 1], [Figure 2]



 

Top
  
 
  Search
 
  
    Similar in PUBMED
   Search Pubmed for
   Search in Google Scholar for
    Email Alert *
    Add to My List *
* Registration required (free)  


    References
    Article Figures

 Article Access Statistics
    Viewed358    
    Printed14    
    Emailed0    
    PDF Downloaded7    
    Comments [Add]    

Recommend this journal

Sitemap | What's New | Feedback | Copyright and Disclaimer | Contact Us
2008 Journal of Global Infectious Diseases | Published by Wolters Kluwer - Medknow
Online since 10th December, 2008